POTENTIAL TROPICAL EVENTS – Results through October 17, 2013
Originally published on WeatherSage.com June 2013
June 30-July 7 – Tropical development in the Atlantic where Bermuda may be in the crosshairs. Record heat and convection in the islands (Cuba, Haiti, etc).
Results: An upper low developed over the islands then traveled past Bermuda leaving .37 inch of precipitation.
July 8 – 14 – Heavy rain in Florida.
Results: About 3″ of rain in Florida.
July 15 – 21 – Wind and rain across the Gulf coast. Oppressive humidity in Louisiana. Hot and humid in Florida with winds picking up later in the period. Severe thunderstorms generally in the south.
Results: Low pressure in the central Gulf area.
July 22 – 28 – Double trouble tropical conditions result in flooding in Florida and the south in general. A moisture filled system develops over the Antilles.
Results: .50 inches of rain in Florida. Tropical Depression Dorian traveled to the Antilles and was persistant to reform again.
July 29 – Aug 5 – Wicked weather is on the horizon in the southern waters. From the Caribbean up through the Gulf of Mexico, storm warning flags will be flying. The major indicators of hurricanes – extreme hot and extreme cold fronts are very obvious and the wind is acute and violent. The system travels up the coast to deliver more rain.
Results: Close to 2 inches of rain in Florida as TD Dorian tried to reform. Well over one inch of rain fell along the coastal region of the mid-Atlantic states.
Aug 6 – 13 – The indications of wind strength build this week, moreso than the moisture component. The energies point to southern Florida and swing up to New England.
Results: .60 inches of rain in Florida (no news on the winds there). Heavy rain and winds in New England Aug 8-9th.
Aug 14 – 19 – A tempest of winds is indicated for the western Gulf of Mexico. The moisture content and the making of a hurricane with the moisture is most likely to affect Florida/Cuba/Bahamas.
Results: No winds results for the western gulf. Over 1 inch across Texas and .50 inches of rain From Louisiana to Florida
Aug 20 – 27 – Another brewing of Mother Nature’s soup ingredients brings on more convection. There are two areas of strong conditions ready to explode. I’m looking at the Atlantic outside of the Antilles and further west to the Caribbean. There is a very strong moisture indicator along the west side of Florida which could cover the entire pennisula and challenge the rainfall records.
Results: 1.50 inches of rain in Florida – no new rainfall records. Tropical storm Fernand blew up in the western gulf, not the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed in the Atlantic, east of the Antilles.
Aug 28 – Sept 4 – The Gulf of Mexico is the target this week. Convection is once again in the crosshairs outside of the Antilles.
Results: Tropical depression #8 tropical wave entered the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. No information re: the Antilles.
Sept 5 – 11 – The heat builds along the east coast but the Sun shines and fair weather is forecast for much of the region. Bermuda has a windy/wet forecast. It is the peak of hurricane season – is there one here? Conditions are ripe at the end of this period for tropical development.
Results: Hurricane Humberto, 1st of the season, Sept. 8th. Over 3 inches of rain for Bermuda.
Sept 12 – 18 – A windy event for Florida along with an unstable atmostphere. Turbulence is expected along with very hot and very wet conditions. A tropical flare up could result.
Results: Over 2 inches of rain in Florida. A tropical flare up referred to as Invest #95 (?)
Sept 19 – 25 – Wind velocities are spotted in the Atlantic. Convection is possible but the system is not close to land.
Results: There was low pressure Sept 20 over Bermuda in the Atlantic. No landfall.
Sept 26 – Oct 3 – A storm along the east coast at the Outer Banks region will bring on flood warnings.
Results: Sept 28th, stormy conditions at the Outer Banks region.
Oct 4 – 10 – Hurricane ingredients are observed in the Gulf of Mexico. Exceptional winds are damaging. Cuba and western Florida may be targeted.
Results: Tropical Storm Karen developed in the Gulf and brought gusty winds and heavy rain along the coast affecting western Florida.
Oct 11 – 17 – Heavy rain in Florida. The front travels up the coast where more moisture is added along with strong winds.
Results: Not accurate
Oct 18 – 25 – Rain and winds in the western Gulf of Mexico. Dismal weather in Florida changing to warm and sunny.
Oct 26 – Nov 2 – A hurricane potential in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps developing in the Caribbean. Wind, rain, the main indicators.
Nov 3 – 9 – More potential for a late season hurricane. Texas and Louisiana are in the path for the convergence of heat, moisture and wind.
Nov 10 – 16 – The models have the same information as last period suggesting there is a stalled system in the Gulf. Looking at the same influence but further north, it might be more of a winter weather watch!
Nov 17 – 24 – Intense rain, flooding through Florida. Accompaning winds could turn the system into a tropical storm.
Nov 25 – Dec 2 – The official hurricane season is over! Vacations down south should have very fine weather this period.