Monday, March 20, 2006, 08:36 AM - MusingsREFLECTION - 2005
The 2005 hurricane season that produced horrific storms named Katrina and Rita is one that will not soon be forgotten. I was adamant that the season would be ‘riddled with storms´. The long range report, written in April 2005, concentrated on the peak months of the season – August, September and October. Katrina belongs to my August 26th forecast for a low pressure system developing at the Bahamas/Miami area. I did not track the storm across the Gulf coast. During that week, another forecast had a system affecting Puerto Rico and they received 13” of rain.
Hurricane Rita developed over South Florida to my forecast of September 11th where I describe a strong low pressure named storm that would develop and the central Gulf states would also be affected.
For the perigee week of October 10th, I wrote that a hurricane would develop affecting the large islands, then the central Gulf coast. The storm was Wilma. She started just south of Jamaica, cruised up by Cuba, then landed on the Yucatan coast. She then took a sharp turn to the Gulf coast of Florida and raced across to the Atlantic.
With all the funding, special equipment and well educated meteorologists – not one could write and predict the storm systems as found in my report. One local RI meteorologist happily stated in a television ad that his job was one where you could “have a wrong forecast and not be fired for it”.
The Astrometeorologist covers thousands of miles of coastline over several months and is able to forecast developing storms and strength as you have read. If you check other long range forecasts claiming 80-90% accuracy, you would find the Almanacs mentioned one hurricane for the whole 2005 season that did not materialize in their forecasted time and place.
Carolyn Egan February 2006
Saturday, October 29, 2005, 06:18 AM - TechniquesThe season has not yet finished yet my forecast of a season 'riddled with storms' has been more than accurate. What kinds of influences precipitated so many storms?
Global warming is too broad a subject for me to cast any blame on the phenomena at this point. Planetary lineups on the summer seasonal chart (the Sun ingress to Cancer 2005) were stunning and should have prompted me to prepare a July forecast, however, the 13 weeks of hurricane season that I did prepare met with success in determining when the major storms developed.
Tracking the storms is possible, but it would take a staff and a bank of computers with payment for services rendered. When that happens, we will out forecast even our present accuracy. This work is not possible with our imbedded system of weather forecasting. When will they get the message!
What other kinds of work is rewarded with payment for inadequate forecasting, usually without apology?
Saturday, October 1, 2005, 04:30 AMYears ago I saw an IMAX feature on taking a ride on the space shuttle. Since that time, I have had thoughts and desires to take a ride into space. There are not many in my life who speak of such desires and I probably am thought of as eccentric or a little bit nuts to even be thinking of such things, especially since I'm in my sixties.
But! Hope lives on when I see that a USA scientist, 60 yrs old, paid the Russians $20,000,000 - yep, that's millions - for a ride into space. That just takes my breath away and I wish him well.
Tuesday, August 30, 2005, 10:35 AM - MusingsThe forming of the hurricane eventually named Katrina was pinpointed in my hurricane forecast. However,I foolishly wrote that the Gulf would be clear for the quarter Moon period of Aug 26th.
The backup models for the Gulf coast states were not checked because the indications for the storm to move up the east coast were so strong that I didn't bother. Katrina is now affecting the east coast today, Aug 30 and tomorrow the 31st validating more of my forecast.
Being more specific about weather conditions can be done but it would take an individual too long to cover a daily report for all the coastlines during hurricane season - even the peak three months. Were there more of us, we could add much more to the weather forecasting capabilities currently in use.
We watch tv forecasters try to give direction to the storm when they can see the storm, but they cannot; only computer projections are used. True, the projections are getting better but there is no way they can prepare a long range forecast and see the storm before it develops. Time after time I and other astrometeorologists have proven that to be true.
Also in the forecast, was noted a second system affecting Puerto Rico perhaps to form sooner than the Miami event, and checking further, I found P.Rico had over 13 inches of rain Aug 25-26th! The hurricane report was developed in April 2005.
The prediction of a season riddled with storms has proved itself all too early as there is more to come with the peak of the season not here yet.
Take care everyone who is in the way of a storm.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005, 03:56 PM - MusingsWe've been to the beach. I took my own advice from the long range weather report and made use of the good days when they came along. Some of our beach weather here in Rhode Island was spectacular and some was pretty dismal.
A friend and his new wife have a food stand at one of our local beaches. They complained that July was not a great month for sales as there were only about two weeks total in the month that they could open up.
August gave us the searing heat and mostly dry weather but there was quite a bit of marine influence that made beaching not so pleasant with fog and mists.
Today, however, was near perfect. The water was free of the red seaweed that we found earlier in the month. With no offshore hurricanes making their way out of our territory the water was very clear and calm and a nice temperature.
The clouds were plentiful today and I wanted express my pleasure here at their beauty. It has been quite a while that I've seen clouds in so many formations all at once. When last in Florida I would see the clouds become taller and taller and by afternoon the showers would begin. That was the picture for us today.
By late this afternoon, the picturesque scene included the rainfall we could see off in the distance - the sky is so big when at the beach. However, we were dry until we hit the road about 5pm.
On the way home we cross the Mt. Hope Bridge that connects Aquidneck Island (Newport RI is there) and Bristol and points north, and as we approached and climbed up, it looked as though we were going to drive right into the beautiful clouds = it was a sight to behold. Some of the clouds were brilliantly white, some darker as we got closer. On the last road to home I saw the sunshine nestled inbetween a white and a very dark cloud...wishing for a camera at that point.
We hope to get a few more beach days before the cooler weather comes in because the ocean water is nice and warm through October. It is truly amazing how quickly the summer season passes. Most people think of September as a fall month but, nay, nay, it is the last 3 weeks of summertime!