Monday, March 20, 2006, 09:14 AM - Forecasts
HURRICANES AND STORMS 2006 Preliminary Report
February 2006 - The initial foray into the hurricane season gives broad information. A deeper analysis and observation will be forthcoming soon to update the following forecast.
Many hours are spent developing the first set of hurricane and storm data. Many more hours will be spent viewing more charts, graphs, maps and charts of particular locations.
Each forecast is the overview of one lunat period that shows the most likely weather for the 7-8 days.
July 2006
July 3-9 Quarter Moon
Florida Heavy rains
Louisiana Strong winds early, heavy rain later.
Carolinas - Breezy to windy, thunderstorms.
Other A moisture laden system develops north of Puerto Rico and a low pressure event is possible in the middle of the Atlantic
July 10-16 Full Moon *Perigee 13th Florida Breezy thunderstorms; seasonal humidity
Louisiana .Breezy, high humidity.
Carolinas - Rain; cloudy
Other - A weather event off the coast of Senegal, Africa near the Canary Islands. Convection is possible.
July 17-24 Quarter Moon
Florida Rain, thunderstorms
Louisiana Stormy weather. Heavy rain.
Carolinas High pressure
Other - Clouds and thunderstorms off the coast of Senegal, near the Canary Islands.
July 25-August 2 New Moon
Florida Wet and windy
Louisiana Heavy rain
Carolinas Heavy rain and windy to gale force winds
Other - quiet.
AUGUST
August 2 8 Quarter Moon
Florida Unstable atmosphere leads to thunderstorms and squallish weather.
Louisiana Thunderstorms
Carolinas - A week of variety. T-storms, windy, warm, rain, humidity, sunny.
Other - Disturbed weather in the mid-Atlantic. Tropical storm flare-up.
August 9 15 Full Moon Perigee August 10th
Florida Searing heat and humidity tropical downpours, T-storms. Hurricane weather.
Louisiana Sunny, warm to very hot and humid.
Carolinas Hot turbulent. Violent atmosphere, downpours.
Other Very hot temperatures in the middle Atlantic.
August 16 22 Quarter Moon
Florida - Seasonable, typical summer weather.
Louisiana Seasonable, hot. Cooling down with T-storm.
Carolinas - Hot, humid. Cooling down T-storm.
Other A very strong tropical depression forms in the mid-Atlantic.
Baha, CA/MX will host a strong hurricane this period.
August 23 30 New Moon
Florida Very hot and humid.
Louisiana Warm to hot, pleasant with some humidity.
Carolinas - Hot and humid with strong winds.
Other Very powerful tropical system develops and becomes a category hurricane near or at the Canary Islands. Heavy rain to flooding on the west coast of Mexico. Southern California has extremely difficult weather, flooding rains.
August 31 September 6 Quarter Moon Perigee SuperMoon September 7th
Florida Hurricane of great strength threatens Florida and the Gulf Coast.
Louisiana Torrential rain and flooding
Carolinas - Windy; heavy rain.
Other Honduras and parts of Central America may be in the storm΄s path.
Generally the steering currents will move the hurricane north.
SEPTEMBER
September 7 13 Full Moon
Mercury sq Pl
Florida Strong gusty winds.
Louisiana A tropical storm develops with very destructive winds.
Carolina Mostly hot and dry
Other A strong, very wet depression develops in the eastern Atlantic on the west side of the Canary Islands.
September 14 21
Florida Take cover for another big blow. A high category hurricane strikes Florida. Oppressive heat.
Louisiana Heavy rain; flash flooding; strong squalls. . Very high humidity.
Carolinas Mixed weather events. Hot, then cooler with rain.
Other Off the coast of Africa there will be convection with a tropical low. It has the potential to be good sized.
Preliminary Hurricane 2006 Report
Carolyn Egan February 2006 ©
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Monday, March 20, 2006, 08:36 AM - Musings
REFLECTION - 2005
The 2005 hurricane season that produced horrific storms named Katrina and Rita is one that will not soon be forgotten. I was adamant that the season would be riddled with storms΄. The long range report, written in April 2005, concentrated on the peak months of the season August, September and October. Katrina belongs to my August 26th forecast for a low pressure system developing at the Bahamas/Miami area. I did not track the storm across the Gulf coast. During that week, another forecast had a system affecting Puerto Rico and they received 13 of rain.
Hurricane Rita developed over South Florida to my forecast of September 11th where I describe a strong low pressure named storm that would develop and the central Gulf states would also be affected.
For the perigee week of October 10th, I wrote that a hurricane would develop affecting the large islands, then the central Gulf coast. The storm was Wilma. She started just south of Jamaica, cruised up by Cuba, then landed on the Yucatan coast. She then took a sharp turn to the Gulf coast of Florida and raced across to the Atlantic.
With all the funding, special equipment and well educated meteorologists not one could write and predict the storm systems as found in my report. One local RI meteorologist happily stated in a television ad that his job was one where you could have a wrong forecast and not be fired for it.
The Astrometeorologist covers thousands of miles of coastline over several months and is able to forecast developing storms and strength as you have read. If you check other long range forecasts claiming 80-90% accuracy, you would find the Almanacs mentioned one hurricane for the whole 2005 season that did not materialize in their forecasted time and place.
Carolyn Egan February 2006
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Saturday, October 29, 2005, 06:18 AM - Techniques
The season has not yet finished yet my forecast of a season 'riddled with storms' has been more than accurate. What kinds of influences precipitated so many storms? Global warming is too broad a subject for me to cast any blame on the phenomena at this point. Planetary lineups on the summer seasonal chart (the Sun ingress to Cancer 2005) were stunning and should have prompted me to prepare a July forecast, however, the 13 weeks of hurricane season that I did prepare met with success in determining when the major storms developed.
Tracking the storms is possible, but it would take a staff and a bank of computers with payment for services rendered. When that happens, we will out forecast even our present accuracy. This work is not possible with our imbedded system of weather forecasting. When will they get the message!
What other kinds of work is rewarded with payment for inadequate forecasting, usually without apology?
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Saturday, October 1, 2005, 04:30 AM
Years ago I saw an IMAX feature on taking a ride on the space shuttle. Since that time, I have had thoughts and desires to take a ride into space. There are not many in my life who speak of such desires and I probably am thought of as eccentric or a little bit nuts to even be thinking of such things, especially since I'm in my sixties.But! Hope lives on when I see that a USA scientist, 60 yrs old, paid the Russians $20,000,000 - yep, that's millions - for a ride into space. That just takes my breath away and I wish him well.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/TECH/space/10/01/russia.olsen.ap/index.html
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Tuesday, August 30, 2005, 10:35 AM - Musings
The forming of the hurricane eventually named Katrina was pinpointed in my hurricane forecast. However,I foolishly wrote that the Gulf would be clear for the quarter Moon period of Aug 26th. The backup models for the Gulf coast states were not checked because the indications for the storm to move up the east coast were so strong that I didn't bother. Katrina is now affecting the east coast today, Aug 30 and tomorrow the 31st validating more of my forecast.
Being more specific about weather conditions can be done but it would take an individual too long to cover a daily report for all the coastlines during hurricane season - even the peak three months. Were there more of us, we could add much more to the weather forecasting capabilities currently in use.
We watch tv forecasters try to give direction to the storm when they can see the storm, but they cannot; only computer projections are used. True, the projections are getting better but there is no way they can prepare a long range forecast and see the storm before it develops. Time after time I and other astrometeorologists have proven that to be true.
Also in the forecast, was noted a second system affecting Puerto Rico perhaps to form sooner than the Miami event, and checking further, I found P.Rico had over 13 inches of rain Aug 25-26th! The hurricane report was developed in April 2005.
The prediction of a season riddled with storms has proved itself all too early as there is more to come with the peak of the season not here yet.
Take care everyone who is in the way of a storm.
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