Friday, April 22, 2005, 09:29 AM - Musings
The wedding day is tomorrow evening, April 23rd. Last year the bride was trying to select a good weather weekend anywhere from April to October. After much searching for a reception site, the bride decided on the weekend of April 23-24. I advised her that she might have a clear day on Saturday but not Sunday - neverthemind, the site for the wedding was wonderful and the ceremony could be held out of doors or inside.For the past 10 days I have been looking at weather.com and accuweather to compare forecasts. Both websites changed their 10 day outlook 2 or 3 times. My forecast cannot change and has been up on my website for over a month and actually prepared in January 05.
Their forecast, plus the local RI mets had 2" of rain forecast a few days ago and this afternoon the rain, if any, is diminished greatly - to showers and windy conditions. Tomorrow we will know.
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Sunday, April 17, 2005, 09:02 AM - Forecasts
The preliminary forecast is on the website and will be added to when a section is completed. I have been searching the web for information on the Hurricane Conference in the Bahamas but can't find a thing.
With all the resources the NWS has, their report includes statistical data only on the number of storms that might occur during the season. What good does that do? Maybe it helps with the sales of candles and related equipment...
Over the years I have had quite a bit of success in describing the fierce storms; just last year I wrote that Florida was in the spyglass with August being a stormy month for them. Two of their 4 storms struck in August. I described many of the storms in the 2004 season for the targeted coasts. Check out my 2005 report and compare with the National Weather Service offerings - remember just how much equipment and monetory support they have and remember that I am one person developing a free report for everyone. Their educated guess is just that - a guess. My report is based on natural cycles that don't come through a computer.
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Sunday, April 17, 2005, 08:15 AM - Forecasts
Without understanding the climate in Peru for the location of the wedding (mountains on one side and jungle on the other), I sent my 'no fee' forecast to the groom. The forecast was for a good weather day except for a possible shower about 4pm.The results - A sun/clouds mix during the day, mostly bright and a slight shower at 3:30pm which did not do enough to have guests leaving the tables for shelter. A downpour occured at about 10:30pm after the guests had departed. Success!
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Thursday, April 14, 2005, 05:09 AM - Musings
When planning a wedding, usually the weather is on the minds of those involved. The wedding date must be selected a year or two in advance and just about everyone knows that there is no way to come up with a forecast so far into the future. NOT!Even though I have had succes with forecasting for special occasions up to 2 years into the future, some closer to me just remain skeptical. Ah, oh well. The wedding is almost here....we'll all know soon.
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Thursday, April 7, 2005, 11:49 AM - Musings
Over this past weekend April 3 and 4, we drove to New Jersey even though heavy rain was forecast here in RI. Starting out at 7am Sunday morning we were having good weather and then two hours out a call was made to my host (Ken Negus in Princeton NJ) to see if all was well there as the reports came in that flooding was taking place in NJ. Ken reported that it was clear in Princeton, that they were on higher ground so we proceeded to drive on. The Sun was shining amidst some clouds and not a drop fell until we hit the New York border. It's such a pretty drive over the Tappan Zee Bridge and on the Garden State Parkway but we did encounter a heavy cloudburst for about 5 minutes - all in all a rather uneventful trip, despite what the tv forecasters were describing.
Of course I doublechecked my own weather charts earlier in the week and found no problem with driving down on the third. It is rather nice to report that all went well.
Princeton is a lovely town, prettier and more rarified than our local campus at Brown University - more ivy, I should think.
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