Hurricane Report - highlights through October 2002

For the past 2 years there have been no land falling hurricanes in the states (accurately forecasted). However, this summer, concern is focused on the Gulf Coast and Florida.

For the Sept. 6th period, Florida is threatened with a hurricane, a real soaker. Mid-September will see convection developing at 38W Longitude that should travel over the Atlantic and become the next hurricane. Also an extreme weather event forms in the Gulf and the western Gulf coast could flood.

Sept. 13th finds low pressure developing off shore; the winds are strong and the rain is abundant.

A second look for this period (as of Sept. 1) has a more ominous and intense forecast. Florida is once again a focus point with the moisture traveling up through the coast bumping along at the Carolinas and the northeast coast.

The above 3 forecasts were accurate. As of Sept. 1st, the Florida region is becoming saturated and a tropical depression formed off the coast of Florida later named Edouard. The storm lingered and dissipated in the Gulf of Mexico. The second was tropical storm Fay, flooding Sept. 7-8. Gustav and Hanna fall into the period during Sept. 6th and 13th weeks.

The change of season, Sept. 21st finds difficult weather in many places. Baja, Mexico develops a low-pressure system off the coast and Brazil may develop really tough weather. It will be very windy off the coast of Africa and Cuba may take a hit with a moisture-laden hurricane. This storm will also threaten the coast of Florida and ride up the USA coast.

Fall Season Storms 2002

In late September, Cuba is under the gun again with strong winds and rain indeed a potential for a storm to make landfall.

A low-pressure storm system forms in the western Gulf in early October threatening the coast of Mexico and into Texas with a soaker. Florida and the northeast are threatened with similar conditions.

In mid-October it's hot and humid and ripe for tropical activity over the Carolinas up through New England, perhaps it is the same system from TX. Also, more rain in Texas.

The period of Oct. 21st finds more rain in the western Gulf of Mexico but high pressure in the central Gulf could prevent that rain from moving out.

National Weather Highlights for the Fall Season

Sept. 20-28

San Francisco, CA and the surrounding counties will be faced with earthquake activity. Colorado and surrounding states encounter harsh weather conditions; wind activity is strong, colder temps and heavy moisture is likely. Again in the Bahamas/Fl/Cuba, more tropical activity with flooding rains.

Sept. 29-Oct 5

A low should form south of Cuba with possible tropical development. Warm to hot along the east coast. It's hot in Kansas City and humid too. In the Gulf, south central, moisture levels are extreme, threatening the coast of Mexico and the region with an intense force of nature.

Oct 6-12

Miami and surrounding counties should prepare; all the ingredients for a hurricane are present. The Midwest is hot again with tornado action likely in Kansas and surrounding states. Stormy in the western Gulf. Windy on the west coast.

Oct 13-20

Strong winds and moisture across the Rockies. Stormy and cool along the west coast.

Oct 29-Nov 3

Could there be snow so early in the northeast? Moisture at Chicago moves east with the cold front. Wet and windy in Kansas City.

Nov 4-10

From Atlanta, GA north to Michigan, low pressure event with strong winds and stormy.

Nov 11-19

Murmurs and small quakes are possible in the western states. Low pressure and temps with strong winds in the Midwest.

Nov 20-27

The analysis for the west coast provides glorious weather with the undertone of tremors as well. Earthquake preparedness should be observed this month. A storm rolls across from the Rockies through the Midwest.

Dec 4-10

More extreme weather events for the Midwest.

Dec 11-19

California has a difficult weather picture. Extreme conditions are prominent - the possibility of fires exists with very dry conditions.

Dec 19-26

Yet another low pressure system with plenty of wind and snow over the Rockies at Utah and surrounding states. Arizona falls under this forecast as well. Above average wind velocities in Chicago.

REGIONAL

New England and the Northeast

Drought, heat wave, and deluges - or all? That was the question for the summer forecast. The season overview was accurate and now we move onto fall.

Hurricane Hazards - Are we due? There has been plenty of tropical activity up to Sept. 23rd as predicted and more to come. The heat of the summer will be history. Normal cooler temperatures and fair weather opens the fall season. Stormy periods are evident throughout the period and are noted in the national trends and the continued hurricane report. Remnants from the wind and rain from the tropical storms will impact the east coast and bring rain to our dry area in the northeast, unfortunately not enough. The winter charts are looking more promising for moisture content. Many weeks through the Thanksgiving holiday feature fine fall weather for the many seasonal activities.
 
Local Winds for the Northeast, Fall 2002

A mostly windy and gusty 3 months. Problematic winds during Sept. 14th - Oct. 6th. Record setting winds are possible Oct. 6-11th. possibly affecting the autumn foliage viewing in the north. The next period through Oct. 31st will be windy with some gusts. Through Nov. 19th will have normal winds. Dec. 8th period is average windiness with some gusts.

Southern New England and the Northeast - Weekly Summaries

Saturday, September 20, 2002 full moon.

Fall begins Sept. 23rd.
Great amounts of rain may fall as we close out the hot summer season on a colder note. Low pressure dominates this period forecast and the hurricane flags are flying along the USA coast. The models are showing environmental damage from a force to be reckoned with, later in the period near the 28th. Be aware and tune in your local mets for details. Next week - sunshine!

Sunday, September 29, 2002 quarter moon

Take advantage of warming up for a while. Enjoy the fair weather. Watch the for the wind buildup.

Sunday, October 6, 2002 new moon Perigee Oct. 6th!

Fair weather to open the period; warm and friendly skies. In between, be watchful.

Nail down any outside furniture still left outdoors. There are nasty and fearsome winds out there, here and for much of the nation, that will blow hard in our direction before the week is out. Tropical activity expected in the Florida area. We may set a record in the wind velocity this week. The beautiful fall foliage may take a hit unfortunately.

Sunday, October 13, 2002, quarter moon Columbus Day long weekend

Fair on the opening but changing to clouds, then t-storms soon after with much rain (probably Monday). Drying out with a cold front approaching near the 18th.

Monday, October 21, 2002, full moon

Cool and dry for openers, then warming. Breezy and fair with a few fair weather clouds and stronger breezes on the 27th.

Tuesday, October 29, 2002 quarter moon

Warming and pleasant with night fogs. Rainfall on the 30th, hopefully just damp, foggy and cool on Halloween. Fair with high pressure until the end of the period when rain should begin Nov. 3rd.

Monday, November 4, 2002 new moon Perigee Nov. 4th

Continued warmer than normal; perhaps more night fog; a disturbed atmosphere could drop rain and bring in annoying aggressive winds. Very unsettled week, let's hope for a pleasant day or two near the 10-11th but the sky is not reliable this week.

Monday, November 11, 2002 quarter moon

Another mixed weather week. Raindrops and chilly to cold to begin the period but temps are tending to be variable. Unstable atmosphere creates clouds and rain on the 13th. Clearing, colder till the end of the period.

Tuesday, November 19, 2002 full moon Lunar eclipse 27 degrees Taurus

Rain on the 24th. Mostly clouds and wind, typical November weather. Fair weather is possible on the 22nd and 26th.

Wednesday, November 27, 2002, quarter moon Thanksgiving Nov. 28th, Perigee Dec. 2nd

We are on the edge of cold air with an unstable atmosphere that will be with us for a few more weeks. Turkey day may be clear but clouds move in on the 29th. Clashing fronts around the 30th could meet and move off to let a sunny day or two through.

Wednesday, December 4, 2002 Perigee December 2nd

Snow! Colder, wet and stormy in the Midwest - will it travel here? More than likely it will near the 7th- 8th.

Wednesday December 11, 2002 quarter moon

Crisp, dry, clear and cold are the keywords for weather for this 7day period. Windy on the 11th. On the 19th watch for clouds and precipitation moving in, or at least a glum, dismal day.

Thursday, December 19, 2002 full moon

Clearing into a mixed week of very fine sunny and cold winter weather changing to clouds and precipitation - a little snow for a white Christmas? Yes, for some in the region, not for everyone.

*Perigee periods, as noted, occur when the Moon and Earth are closest in their monthly cycle. The weather trend is towards intensification with stronger gravitational pull (higher and lower tides) plus an increase in wind activity. When perigee, a new or full Moon and the Moon in high declination happen at the same time, it is labeled a Super Moon. Intense weather and seismic events are found around the globe during this period.

For drought information this site can give you the latest updates.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html.

Carolyn Egan - Copyright Sept 2002
carolyn@weathersage.com