WEATHER REPORT

Long Range Forecast for Spring 2002

National Trends and a Local Report for New England

By Carolyn Egan, Cranston, R.I.                32nd Season
Astrometeorologist

Greetings to all who enjoy watching the weather. Modern long range weather forecasting takes advantage of the very old and the new 21st century techniques together to produce information for an entire season. Ahead you will find general weather trends across America in two-week intervals, plus seasonal and weekly summaries for the New England area. Forecasts for future dates are available for the individual or business, please contact: carolyn@weathersage.com

National Trends and Highlights

Headlines this season will concern earthquake and volcano activity in the Pacific ring of fire, and the very dry weather conditions along the east coast. The June 10th solar eclipse view path covers the Pacific Ocean's Ring of Fire and puts the west coast on red flag alert. http://pubs.usgs.gov/publications/text/fire.html

"Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions."

The view path will often display the range of influence of an eclipse. The August 1999 solar eclipse view path ended over the country of Turkey. The country is susceptible to earthquake activity and did come to pass.


Click here to view June 10, 2002 Solar Eclipse path highlighting the ‘Ring of Fire’ volcanoes

Click here to view June 10, 2002 Eclipse Solarmap

Click here to view ARIES INGRESS map

Click here to view ARIES INGRESS chart


Severe windstorms plague the Midwest every spring and this season the alert is on again. The transiting declination graph clearly shows a number of troublesome fronts merging in May through June. For your convenience please use the links to the graphic displays at the website. There are charts, maps and a graph might be useful to many.

California, southern
The season overview calls for just below average temps with a wind velocity that at times is dangerous. Seismic activity will be stronger this spring. For 2 weeks towards the end of March, cooler air and chance of sprinkles does not overshadow the usual fair weather in this area. April 12th period provides fair weather but the winds could be severe to the point of making headlines. April 27th weather could be unusual; more seismic shaking than normal, hot and cold temps trading days, perhaps a storm brewing. The 2-week period beginning May 12 calls for showers, just a few, but overall, sunny and warm. The next 2 weeks starting May 26th offer bright sunshine and mild temps. Breezy conditions later in the week with the atmosphere becoming disturbed. June 10th brings up fog but mild to warm temp. High pressure takes over for the last week of spring - bright blue sky.

Northwest corner centered on Seattle
Cooler than normal for the season with strong winds and seismic warnings, perhaps somewhat stronger than for California. Northern California will have fog that lingers, but very fair weather in general. Early spring calls for a mix of fair and stormy rain events. The April 12th period may open with a few spring showers but dry, fair and breezy conditions should dominate.
The full Moon on the 27th should provide plenty of rain during the period. May 12th begin dry, perhaps morning fog but mostly fair for the 2 weeks. The next period, May 26th finds tapering showers, a few days of fair weather taking a turn for more chilly, blustery scenario. There is a caution flag up for the last part of the spring season. The indications are for severe fog that could be deadly and strong seismic activity is noted here as well.

Southwest quarter centered on Phoenix
Warmer than average for the season. Mostly fair weather with breezes and puffy clouds trekking along. April 12th continues with dry and windy with more intensity. The full Moon period April 27th could put this area on the edge of a storm system. May 12th shows a period of high wind that could produce a seasonal storm. The end of May, for 2 weeks will be dry to start with increasingly windy, drying days. The June 10th sets a high-pressure event and warm dry temps stirring up the dust. Listen for underground rumblings and difficulties with transportation.

Midwest centered on Kansas City
Seasonal fair weather for this area. Moderate temps and rainfall will help with the planting for Kansas City and due north of the city. The southern mid-west region will endure humidity and moisture stemming from the Gulf. Roll in the rains for early spring weather. April 12th moisture from the south continues with spring rainfall along with very warm temps. April 27th would find more tornadic conditions beginning to form. Hot and cold fronts should gather, typical of spring conditions in this region. The May 12th period shows spring rainfall with mild temps. Powerful wind conditions are set in motion for the May 26th 2-week period. Stay alert!

June 10th brings in a tricky 2 weeks. There should be scattered showers to begin with and high pressure to follow. The wind could be problematic in various locations into the last week of spring.

Midwest centered on Chicago
Summer like temps and fair weather, but dry, are the main indicators for the season. Early spring brings fair but dry days. April 12th the tornado season should be showing its ugly face up and down through the Midwest region. The 27th of April period will have a mix of showers and fair weather continuing through the May 12th period but just a tad warmer. Powerful fronts merge in this area bringing strong winds and temps that should be dropping through this 2 week May 26th period. Back in 1974 there were similar conditions preceding the Super Outbreak in Xenia, OH.

Springtime waves goodbye during this June 10th period leaving warm to uncomfortable humid conditions taking over.

Southeast quarter centered on Atlanta
Warm air and fine fair days will have southerners smiling; however, a caution flag waves for severe T-storms the latter part of spring. The good news is that some will skirt the region. Fair and dry for the early spring. The April 12th period turns from the hot and dry to more windy and lower temps. Late in April for 2 weeks, the humidity should begin to build, intense, damaging thunderstorms will form. Warming and dry during the May 12th timeframe with building thunderstorm activity that looks threatening but may not become active. More threats but of severe weather as various fronts move through but may skirt or pass by the region. The June 10th to the end of spring bring T-storms to the area only to revert to the dry conditions once again.

New England and the Northeast
Mild and dry weather was accurately forecast for winter. Spring 2002 will be very dry and warm, above average. Late May into June the wind will pick up and it will be cooler than normal. With the continuing dry spells, the drought conditions could go to new levels from late May into June, confirming the situation. http://drought.unl.edu/monitor/monitor.html
Dry weather for one season does not usually make a drought, the Midwest drought in the mid-west 1930s persisted over several years. In New England, conserving water may become mandatory as we head into the third dry season.

Local Winds for the Northeast, Spring 2002
As the season shifts, the usual strong breeze prevails. Mid April the winds are not as strong but in the first 2 weeks of May there could be a local wind event possibly a tornado. Mid-May to the end of the season will be windy with more strong wind warnings.

Weekly Forecast Summaries for Southern New England and the Northeast
Perigee periods, as noted, occur when the Moon and Earth are closest in their monthly cycle. The trend is towards an intensification of weather with stronger gravitational pull (higher and lower tides) plus an increase in wind activity. When perigee, a new or full Moon and the Moon in high declination happen at the same time it is labeled a Super Moon. Intense weather and seismic events are found around the globe during this period.

Thursday, March 21, 2002 quarter moon. Super Moon period begins March 25th

High pressure opens our new season. Cold with the potential for wind damage in the region. Some precipitation may be associated with the front but mostly a dry week. The wide-range of temps reverse to warm up at the end of the period. Fly those kites!

Thursday, March 28, 2002 full moon Perigee Super Moon period from March 25th

Warm and dry. Sunny days after morning fog burns off. A shower or clouds moving in on the 30th, cooler for the rest of the period and for the Easter holiday.

Thursday, April 4, 2002 quarter moon

April showers are right around the corner, after a blustery start to the period. Thunderstorms will find their way into some areas. A mixed weather week with some sunshine in between the clouds and fronts as they pass by.

Friday, April 12, 2002 new moon

Fair weather galore! Moderate to warm temps, windy near the 17th. Only the slim chance of light rain on the 13th.

Saturday, April 20, quarter moon

High pressure dominates along with delightful spring weather and breezes. Dry air continues to control with little chance of moisture taking hold in our region. Extraordinary weather news makes headlines in our region.

Friday, April 26, full moon Perigee April 25th

Another splendid week? That depends on what you need from the weather. Fair and dry ahead is good news for some but planting season needs much more rain. With any luck, a thunderbuster by the end of the period.

Saturday, May 4, 2002 quarter moon

Chilly and breezy leftovers from the thunderstorm. Clouds or damp and foggy conditions along with intermittent Sun. There is plenty of weather to the west of us and we anticipate how it will move to the east coast. The rolling storms should reach us near the end of the period bringing strong winds. Warmer near the 9th. Traffic and communications galore!

Sunday, May 12, 2002 new moon

A spike of strong winds and cold air invades the area, hopefully not for long. The wind has a chance of being destructive; a tornado watch could be in effect. Clouds and moisture could drop a bit of rain, but not likely. Fair, warm and humid in between the weather threats!

Sunday, May 19, 2002 quarter moon Perigee, May 22nd

Cool temps for this time of year. Look for a mix of fair, to partly sunny days. A disturbance near the 24th may bring on some rainfall but, instead, the drought conditions are bearing down.

Sunday, May 26, 2002 full moon Lunar Eclipse 5 deg. Sagittarius

Is it warming yet? Perhaps - there is an indication of very fair weather at the beginning of this period, turning to cold and blustery, with dry winds prevailing from the unstable atmosphere. When the fronts and the showers pass, it will clear again into more favorable spring days.

Sunday June 2, 2002, quarter moon

Reverting back to warm to hot air moving in. Near the 8thshowers may front the air mass and a drop in temps. The models are indicating the air is very dry resulting in less rainfall leaving us with dusty, dry ground.

Monday, June 10, 2002, new moon Solar Eclipse 19:54 deg. Cancer

Another period of dry air, this time with more wind sending temps downward. There could be an early hurricane in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Monday, June 17, 2002, quarter moon

The persistent dryness continues but the more seasonal humid air may start to flow our way. A chance of showers or rain near the turn of the season, 20-21st. Will the drought continue over the summer?

Carolyn Egan Copyright February 19, 2002
carolyn@weathersage.com

Meteorology even with the aid of weather satellites, computers and modern high-speed communication facilities, never will succeed in dealing intelligently with anomalies of weather beyond the actual time and progress of the phenomena.
                    George J. McCormack, 1965