Hurricane Report - highlights through October 2002

For the past 2 years there have been no land falling hurricanes in the states (accurately forecasted). However, this summer, concern is focused on the Gulf Coast and Florida.

In the first week of August, the Mid-Atlantic States will contend with hot and humid weather with plenty of rain. The Atlantic is warming up. The rain could be of a tropical nature; there is associated wind and the presence of a low to bring about storm that could flood the area.

Aug. 8-16th (a perigee period) is a time for strong winds along the Gulf coast that could combine with moisture and form a tropical system. New Orleans and the surrounding coast is cautioned for a hit of this tropical event with Texas as a secondary target.

Mid-August finds 2 strong wind events firing up off the *ITCZ at 42W Longitude in the Atlantic. The Mid-Atlantic States suffer with the heat and violent T-storms.

For the Sept. 6th period, Florida is threatened with a hurricane, a real soaker. Mid-September will see convection developing at 38W Longitude that could travel over the Atlantic and become the next hurricane.

Sept. 13th finds low pressure developing off shore; the winds are strong and the rain is abundant.

The change of season, Sept. 21st finds difficult weather in many places. Baja, Mexico develops a low-pressure system off the coast and Brazil may develop really tough weather. It will be very windy off the coast of Africa and Cuba may take a hit with a moisture-laden hurricane. This storm will also threaten the coast of Florida.

Fall Season Storms 2002

In late September, Cuba is under the gun again with strong winds and rain indeed a potential for a storm to make landfall.

A low-pressure storm system forms in the western Gulf in early October threatening the coast of Mexico and into Texas with a soaker. Florida and the northeast are threatened with similar conditions.

In mid-October it's hot and humid and ripe for tropical activity over the Carolinas up through New England, perhaps it is the same system from TX. Also, more rain in Texas.

The period of Oct. 21st finds more rain in the western Gulf of Mexico but high pressure in the central Gulf could prevent that rain from moving east.

*ITCZ - Intertropical Convergence Zone

NATIONAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

Headlines last season and now for summer concern earthquake and volcano activity in the Pacific ring of fire. The June 10th 2002 solar eclipse view path covered the Pacific Ocean's Ring of Fire complex of volcanoes and has the west coast on red flag alert. One shaker emerged near San Jose, CA in May. http://pubs.usgs.gov/publications/text/fire.html
"Volcanic arcs and oceanic trenches partly encircling the Pacific Basin form the so-called Ring of Fire, a zone of frequent earthquakes and volcanic eruptions."

Severe windstorms plague the Midwest every spring and this summer season the alert is on again. In the next 3 months, the areas between 99W and 106W longitude will experience the brunt of nasty weather. Also, the Mississippi is subject to severe flooding.

Late June look for fog, flooding, rains or unusual weather events in the very dry places in New Mexico, Colorado and up through Wyoming. In early July there will be strong winds with tornado activity strong from Texas to OK, Kansas and north. During the period of July 17th, the Carolinas should have downpours to ease their drought and it will be cool at W. TX, Colorado and Montana. Also in early July Florida will have record rainfalls and plenty of humidity.

In the last week of July, heavy rain falls over Louisiana and Kansas. There is a disturbance that could drop record amounts of rain in Guatemala region that usually prove disastrous. Early August, the mugginess comes back to life over Washington DC. Near August 8, Chicago proves to be the 'windy city' and it will be difficult times for those dry states out west - Colorado, Montana and Wyoming - spontaneous combustion of the trees may produce deadly forest fires.

The nation's capital endures a heat wave in mid-August and record heat also at Cape Cod while needed moisture enters the very dry zone out west. A tropical event could produce abundant moisture along the east coast at the August 22nd period; it could be the drought-buster rainstorm for the Mid-Atlantic States. At the end of August, the west coast could have a shake, rattle and roll experience and the possibility of record setting heat.

Early in Sept. the Ohio valley region takes on rain, all the way south to western Florida. Low pressure develops off the coast of California to produce rain. Mid-September look for rain and wind over New York and a low-pressure system in the Bahamas. Hot weather prevails in the Midwest and rain moves into Washington State - all mid September. At the change of the seasons, more tropical weather is expected at the Carolinas while the wind rages in the very dry states out west. Californians won't be happy with more low-pressure weather offshore.

REGIONAL
New England and the Northeast - Deluges, drought, heat wave, or all?

Fortunately relief is on the way in the form of decent downpours along with periods of very hot and dry weather conditions for the season ahead. The main information chart for the season indicates a wet summer and the weekly detail charts tend to confirm. Fast moving weather fronts during the season will result in acute thunder and lightning storms. A 'variety' of weather events this summer is an understatement! Will it be a drought-buster season ahead - it could be. For drought information this site can give you the latest updates.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html.

As we enter the official summer season, Rhode Island is still considered abnormally dry despite the rainfall this spring. Much of the northeast is in moderate drought while other sections of the USA are in very serious drought mode with tinder dry forests.

Local Winds for the Northeast, Spring 2002

As the season shifts, new wind patterns come in. Spring saw very strong winds in the northeast, some were near tornado strength causing damage and boating fatalities. Summertime winds will continue to be active; strong wind events mid- July and mid-September.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST - WEEKLY SUMMARIES

Monday, June 17, 2002 quarter moon *Perigee June 19

Sunny and dry changing over to dropping temps. A chance of showers or rain near the turn of the season, the 20-21st and again on the 23rd.

Monday, June 24, 2002 full moon lunar eclipse 3 deg. Capricorn

We should see a cold front pass through dropping some rain and wind, leaving the weekend open to lingering clouds and still very windy. Many fronts in the area for the rest of the period calling for showers and strong easterly winds July 1, 2. Not the best vacation week.

Tuesday, July 2, 2002 quarter moon

Another less than stellar week for vacationers. The easterly breeze continues and expect a squall early in the period. Clearing, then looking very dry for the 3rd. Be on the lookout for fires popping up in various locations in the region. Very windy for the 4th. Continuing with off/on aggressive thunderstorms scattered around New England. The weekend, 6-7th has good possibilities for fair weather. Looking for more rain and more wind at the end of the period.

Wednesday, July 10, 2002 new moon Perigee July 14th

Great summer weather. Good vacation week with comfortable to hot temps, dry conditions and sunshine. It is plenty hot south of RI. There is a chance of a cloudburst, a quick localized downpour on the 13th.

Wednesday, July 17, 2002 quarter moon

A beautiful week for vacationers. High-pressure this week with increasing temps, humidity. There is danger of severe brush fires and strong breezes here; extreme fire alerts may be sounded.

Wednesday, July 24, 2002 full moon

Expect another localized cloudburst as it will continue to be hot and humid over the weekend inducing an event. Fires are still a danger with the whipping wind adding fuel to fire.

Thursday, August 1, 2002 quarter moon

Too much Sun and hot weather? A farmer's rain, or even another downpour, would fit in this week nicely and would be most appreciated. Will we need to perform a rain dance in earnest to get it - get busy and dance this weekend on Aug 4th to bring in the clouds, or read the book by V. Boesen on the weather website and find out how droughts were busted. http://www.weathersage.com Did your dance work? How much rain fell?

Thursday, August 8, 2002 new moon *Perigee August 10

Sizzle sizzle! The heat wave proves disastrous - bring on the rain. Low pressure forms; look for a storm on Aug. 10-11th. Clearing to more hot temps and possible rain on the 14-15th.

Thursday, August 15, 2002 quarter moon

Very active T-storms could give us a good show on the 14-15th. Hot air builds, and then collides with the cold producing record setting amount of rain around the 21st. Is this the drought-buster?

Thursday, August 22, 2002 full moon

The wind is blowing and a change is coming our way. Be on the lookout for acute electrical storms with flash flooding and plenty of wind on the 24th and again around the 28th. Fair weather in between rain dates.

Friday, August 30, 2002 quarter moon

Something tropical is brewing. More rain with flash floods; perhaps remnants from a petered out hurricane near the 5, 6th.

Friday, September 6, 2002 new moon *Perigee Sept. 8

Typical summer weather with the hot and hazy woolies starts off this weekend. An extreme weather event is developing in the Gulf of Mexico threatening Florida and also the western Gulf coast could flood. Showers are possible on the 10-11th.

Friday, September 13, 2002 quarter moon

We may find the atmosphere is turbulent early this week; warm temps at first. Generous gusts of wind will bring in a change to rain and lower temps on the 16-17th and 19th.

Saturday, September 20, 2002 full moon

Great amounts of rain may fall as we close out the summer season on a cold note. Low pressure dominates this forecast and the hurricane flags are flying. The models are showing environmental damage from a force to be reckoned with later in the period, near the 28th. Be aware and watch your local mets for details.

*Perigee periods, as noted, occur when the Moon and Earth are closest in their monthly cycle. The weather trend is towards intensification with stronger gravitational pull (higher and lower tides) plus an increase in wind activity. When perigee, a new or full Moon and the Moon in high declination happen at the same time, it is labeled a Super Moon. Intense weather and seismic events are found around the globe during this period.