HURRICANE NOTES from 1985

Very often, weather repeats itself every 19 years, the length of an eclipse cycle. Looking back to the hurricane season of 1985 there were 11 named storms:

 # Name                      Dates            Wind Pres  Cat
 1 Tropical Storm ANA        15-19 JUL          60  996   -
 2 Hurricane BOB             21-26 JUL          65 1002   1
 3 Hurricane CLAUDETTE        9-17 AUG          75  980   1
 4 Hurricane DANNY           12-20 AUG          80  988   1
 5 Hurricane ELENA           28 AUG-4 SEP      110  953   3
 6 Tropical Storm FABIAN     15-19 SEP          55  994   -
 7 Hurricane GLORIA          16 SEP-2 OCT      125  920   4
 8 Tropical Storm HENRI      21-25 SEP          50  996   -
 9 Tropical Storm ISABEL      7-15 OCT          60  997   -
10 Hurricane JUAN            26 OCT-1 NOV       75  971   1
11 Hurricane KATE            15-23 NOV         105  954   3

HURRICANE REPORT for August and September 2004

This year, a planetary configuration insures that we will have a storm that will have record breaking wind conditions. Florida tops the list for the location of the strike, particularly in August. Hurricanes and Florida are almost synonymous, but landfall does not occur every year. I think extra and early preparation is wise for this season.

The major weather events for several locations, the Mid-Atlantic States (Carolinas), Florida and the Gulf coast are described in this report; however, not all storms will be covered. New England may be brushed by one of the several storms this season.

If you enjoy this report and have any questions, be sure to write to me. I would enjoy hearing from you - until then, keep your eye on the storm!

Take a look at the annual hurricane report from NOAA http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html and compare their statistics with my hands on, descriptive analysis of when and where for the hurricane season.

Full Moon July 31, 2004 (perigee July 30th)
There is turbulence along the gulf coast with severe flooding. The lesser Antilles islands are also in the path of a storm/wind event.

Quarter Moon August 7, 2004
Two systems should emerge off the coast of Mexico; one could have some substance to it but the other is weak. Along the northwest coast of California look for a wet and windy front to come ashore, while not a hurricane, it could be a severe storm for this location.

The Senegal Express (my nickname for the coast of Africa where the storms are spawned into the Atlantic to develop as they may) will be pumping out several systems headed our way. The storms seem to be appearing earlier in the season than usual; which ones will develop?

New Moon August 15, 2004
A heavy rain, perhaps flooding event will take place in the area of Puerto Rico; strong winds accompany this system that may reach up to Florida. Hurricane warnings in the gulf coast area - they don't always wait until September to make themselves known. Disastrous weather conditions on the Canadian border in the Lake Superior region.

Quarter Moon August 23, 2004 (perigee Aug 27th)
Flooding in Houston TX and/or surrounding areas. A wet/windy system will move into Florida. A minor windy/wet front at the Carolinas.

Full Moon August 29, 2004
Cuba and Florida are in the spyglass this lunar period for there is plenty of moisture in a system that could damage the environment. A gloomy grey period prevails for the mid Atlantic states. In the southwest, there is a severe and explosive weather event. A raging fire could burn out of control and readers in this area should take caution.

Quarter Moon September 6, 2004
As we approach the peak of hurricane season (determined by the Weather Service) there are many weather events taking place. The Gulf coast area is the target this week for flooding and wind damage. The system looks to be landfalling and deadly. The Carolinas are dealing with a tropical system that is poised along the Atlantic coast, subjecting residents to unbearable heat and humidity. Another super system is developing offshore in the Atlantic.

New Moon September 14, 2004
Steamy! A rich sauna for the residents along the east coast, perhaps the whole of the eastern third of the USA, as more tropical weather pumps into the region. Look for another tropical convergence forming in the Atlantic. More nasty weather for the western Gulf coast to deal with.

Quarter Moon September 21, 2004 (perigee September 21)
Florida, with hot and humid conditions, continues for now and the
storm warnings are down for a while. A tropical system develops off the west coast of Mexico; flooding is possible but the winds don't have the punch to damage. The USA west coast has a harsh weather event that could erupt closer to San Francisco through the northwest.

Full Moon September 28, 2004
Watch for a tropical system in the Caribbean that could develop further and move up to the Gulf area. In the dry regions of the Rockies the bad news is that gusty winds will amplify fires in this area. Headlines will be made with these influences unfortunately.

There is a group of planetary influences over the Pacific that has me wondering if the ocean waters are heating up. If true, this could be the beginning of an El Nino. The location is near the equator and about 113 west longitude.

OCTOBER STORMS - Will appear in the Fall 2004 long range weather report.

NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST USA

There are many weeks with mixed weather events guaranteeing a good number of wonderful summer weather days to enjoy along with typical roving T-storms. It is a true forecast when we repeat 'don't like the weather right now? - well, just wait 10 minutes for it to change!' Judging from the better weeks available this summer, at least 6 of them, we are in better shape than spring 2004 when we were begging for warmer air - well, it is here, quite loud and strong much of August-September.

SUMMARY OF WEATHER EVENTS - WEEKLY

Local Winds Summary for the Northeast, Summer 2004

The wind indications vary throughout the summer season. The analysis of six charts gives a forecast of average winds through July 25th with the highest velocity of winds noted in the weekly summaries.

After July 25th, we will have above average windy periods with winds out of the northwest from time to time through Sept. 2. For the rest of the season the winds will be mostly seasonable with a few difficult periods of winds that may be from tropical systems. Check the hurricane report and the weekly summaries for more detail.

Southern New England and the Northeast
The following forecasts contain weekly summaries describing the dominant weather for each7-8 day lunar period. Not all weather events are described.

Thursday June 16 - 24, 2004
We can come up for a breather from the many fronts that have converged on us over the spring season. They are easing up, at least for this week. There will be rain in the early part of this period and continue to have cooler temps before the weekend, then fog and clouds move in. Springtime ends on the sad note, remembering the extreme events that have passed our way. The start of summer, at the end of this period, will be more fair with high pressure, warmer temps and humidity.

Friday, June 25 - July 1, 2004
It is a mixed week of weather events because of fast moving fronts. A round of T-storms may pass over, and a passing low will bring a few dank and misty periods with strong breezes. Watch for clearing and fair days sprinkled with partly cloudy days. Warming up at the end of the period.

Friday, July 2 - 8, 2004 *Perigee and **SuperMoon early July
The nasty weather associated with a SuperMoon will be taking place in other parts of the world. For our region you can count on a warm to hot and dry holiday period. Stormy weather and dropping temps west of us will be coming our way near the 6- 8th.

Friday, July 9 - 16, 2004
Brisk winds and dry conditions could spark brushfires. Be on the alert! An unstable atmosphere will set the stage for roving thunderstorms midperiod. Clearing, then clouds and seasonable temps.

Saturday, July 17 - 23, 2004
Saturday is a good day for a wedding or other outside activities! The dry, windy weather and brush fire alerts continue. The moisture levels will rise resulting in humid conditions. The temps are higher and scattered T-storms are possible, cooling it off a bit.

Saturday, July 24 - 30, 2004 *Perigee July 30th.
An offshore low may bring rain to northern New England and with any luck we could escape the rain and clouds. It is too close to tell. More tropical like conditions should prevail the rest of the period with very nice weather days near the end of the month.

Saturday, July 31 - August 6, 2004 *Perigee July 30th
Warm and dry with extreme wind conditions that could set a new record for velocity. Bermuda has strong indications for a hurricane or strong storm to develop there, as well as in the area of the Bahamas. The western Gulf area will have problems as well. Locally, except for the high winds, a pleasant week of weather, mostly warm to hotter than average and dry. The winds from the storm could spill over to our shoreline.

Saturday, August 7 - 14, 2004
Warm and humid conditions producing scattered showers and some steady rain as well. Clearing to
fine summer weather mid period.

Sunday, August 15 - 22, 2004
Mild temperatures and a summer downpour. There is a low pressure system in the Atlantic, east of Bermuda that might affect our area later in the period. There are severe storms in the northern Midwest that may also infringe on our otherwise good summer weather. At the very least, roving, windy thunderstorms, but take care to listen to the regular mets for a worsening situation at the end of the period.

Monday August 23 - 28, 2004 *Perigee August 27
Turbulent atmospheric activity will bring cooler temps, thunderstorms and erratic windstorms. The ocean temps may not be warm enough to sustain a hurricane in our area, but the local energy to enhance a storm is there. The air should warm with some humidity at the end of this period.

Sunday August 29 - Sept. 5, 2004 Holiday Weekend Sept. 4,5
If this were the winter season I would be calling for snow! During the summer, however, the planets must associate with the season, therefore… Hot and moist = humidity. It is very uncomfortable to the west of us but we may escape the worst of it. West of New England there will be heavy rain early in the period and the clouds from that rain will move into our region later on the 4th. We should find a few lovely summer days, but opposing fronts are likely to bring thunderstorms to cool things off over the weekend A mixed week of up and down temperatures.

Monday, September 6 - 13, 2004 Labor Day Sept. 6
Our local weather will be influenced by a storm in the Atlantic. Turbulent winds gather strength as the period wears on. Please tune in to local forecasts. Oppressive heat and humidity lingers mid-period, setting off random T-storms in the region. Possible flooding this week and next, in the south, points to a tropical depression, if not hurricane.

Tuesday, September 14 - 20, 2004
It may be the change of season but the weather this period is about the same as the last week. Hot weather remains along with strong breezes associated with roving T-storms producing rain and showers for the weekend. Unstable weather fronts press on with more temperature shifts over the whole week.
The conveyer belt of tropical storms is working well. We could be dealing with one or more storms.

Tuesday, September 21 - 27, 2004 *Perigee September 22
The line-up of planets is sure to produce a violent hurricane in the Atlantic. Our area may be on the fringe of the storm and precautions should be taken. The windy conditions from the storm will cover our area. The heat and humidity remain for another week. with rain or tropical downpours later in the period.

*Perigee periods, as noted, occur when the Moon is closest to Earth in its monthly cycle. The weather trend is to intensification of the weather with stronger gravitational pull (higher and lower tides) plus an increase in wind activity. When the Moon is perigee and the Moon is new or full, plus the Moon is in high declination degrees, all at the same time, it is labeled a **Super Moon. Intense weather and seismic events are found around the globe during this period.

One SuperMoon in early July 2004

For drought information, refer to this site for the latest updates.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

CREATING THE LONG RANGE FORECAST

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