The general public in the south and southeast USA are anxious to know what threats can be forecast for the upcoming 2005 Hurricane Season. In the north, we will have concerns as the storms look to head up the coast from the Cape Hatteras areas at the Carolinas. Check this site for the names used this season.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

The first named storm, Arlene, has drenched the Florida Panhandle in June and while I don't focus on tropical storms early in the hurricane season, I did forecast the wet weather in the June 6th national highlights section of my Spring Report that was prepared in January 2005 - "Moisture coming up from the Gulf could be problematic."

The 2004 hurricane report I developed warned Floridians about the storms coming their way. Television meteorologists cannot prepare such a report and can only see the hurricanes as they develop during the actual season. Astrometeorologists can forecast weather well into future dates.

Many have written to ask for the 2005 hurricane forecast. With my limited staff (just me) and no salary or banks of computers, I am able to compile an analysis of the peak months of the season - 13 weeks from August through October, concentrating on Florida, Cape Hatteras, and the Gulf coast areas. There is no doubt that the season riddled with storms.

Are you at risk? A more personal, individual observation is available by choosing a consultation here:

HURRICANE OUTLOOK for the SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE USA

July 28 through August 12 - There are storm indicators in the weather charts for this period but other than strong thunderstorms, typical for this time of the year, there is not enough to indicate any severe hurricane threat.

August 13 through the 25th - Perigee Aug 19th. Abundant moisture develops along with wild winds affecting all the coasts, perhaps from two different systems. Strong hurricane force winds develop more than once in this period. Heavy rain for the western Gulf area. The Florida panhandle is targeted for a hurricane as well. The Cape Hatteras area may have record rainfall/flooding. There will be a strong storm off the coast of Mexico during this period as well.

August 26th Typically, there will be more named storms this period. The first is a low pressure weather system off the east coast of the states developing perhaps at the Bahamas/Miami and cruises up through Cape Hatteras, eventually affecting Southern New England. The other system has its eye on Puerto Rico and the islands. The Gulf coasts look clear of storms this period.

September 3rd Florida reverts back to tropical heat and humidity for this period. The Gulf Coast, also hot with thunderstorms and the Carolinas look to be storm free. There is intense energy in Southern New England which could present a hurricane warning.

September 11th. This is not a good week for Florida and the panhandle. There is a threat coming into the area with very strong winds attached. Perigee also occurs Sept. 16th. This storm may have just tropical indications for a while, even if land falling, it will do some windy/wet damage. However, the storm buildup I have found could actually strike in this next period. Windy thunderstorms for Texas. The Carolinas will have seasonable weather.

September 18th. In Florida, the howling begins and the rain comes in buckets. It will be a strong low pressure, named hurricane. Flooding rain can cause the earth to move. The central Gulf States will get a fair amount of rain as well. For the Carolinas, they may be more affected by the storm than Florida. The storm looks to push off to Southern New England.

September 25th. Something is brewing off the coast of the Senegal (Africa) Express, near the Canary Islands. It may come our way in the next few weeks because these systems can take up to two weeks to develop while traveling over the Atlantic. For Florida, expect a tropical flare-up that heads more towards the Hatteras region, where flooding rains are possible. Texas and Louisiana should have dry and breezy weather.

October 3rd Solar Eclipse. More convection in the eastern Atlantic. Florida has pleasant weather this week. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico typically begin to develop storms at this time. A strong indication of extreme weather for the Gulf coast areas producing gusty winds. The Carolinas are quiet.

October 10th Perigee October 16. Big time storm developing, a hurricane, affecting the large islands in the Caribbean. The central Gulf coast is strongly affected with wind and extreme moisture. Florida or the east coast states do not appear to be in the path of this storm. The rain should push off to the west.

October 18th Lunar Eclipse There is a low pressure system developing with strong winds in the islands area of the Atlantic. It should move along the eastern coast of the states affecting the Mid-Atlantic States and Southern New England. Sun and clouds for the central Gulf Coast.

October 25th This week will have definite rain problems. This time of the season can bring severe tropical rains to the Caribbean and also to the Central America countries and Mexico. Remember Mitch? This is one week to pay attention to where the rain is headed. Cold fronts from the north may be trying to push south against the warm southern air as the season slowly gives up tropical influences. Rainy conditions along the central Gulf coast are expected.

Carolyn Egan
© April 2, 2005 and June 10, 2005