THE 2006 HURRICANE REPORT (UPDATED 5/15/06)
by Carolyn Egan, Astrometeorologist
REFLECTION - 2005The 2005 USA Hurricane Season that produced horrific storms named Katrina and Rita is one that will not soon be forgotten. I was adamant that the 2005 season would be 'riddled with storms'. The long range report, written in April 2005, concentrated on the peak months of the season - August, September and October. Katrina, unnamed at the time, developed August 26th and my long range February forecast included an accurate description of the low pressure system developing at the Bahamas/Miami area. I did not track the storm across the Gulf coast. During that week, Puerto Rico saw 13" of rain, accurately forecast as well.
Hurricane Rita developed over South Florida also included in my forecast of September 11th where I described a strong low pressure, named storm that would develop and the central Gulf States would also be affected.
For the perigee week of October 10th, Hurricane Wilma emerged and was aptly described in the report.
With all the funding, special equipment and well educated meteorologists - not one could write and predict the storm systems as found in my report. One local RI meteorologist happily stated in a television ad that his job was one where you could "have a wrong forecast and not be fired for it".
The single Astrometeorologist covers thousands of miles of coastline over several months and is able to forecast developing storms and strength as you have read. If you check other long range forecasts claiming 80-90% accuracy, you would find the Almanacs mentioned one hurricane for the whole 2005 season that did not materialize in their forecasted time and place. In the 2006 Almanacs there are a few more hurricanes mentioned.
Halfway through the season, in early August 2005, a well-known AccuWeather meteorologist issued another hurricane forecast. He wrote that the remaining storms from mid August to mid October would travel along the USA east coast with landfalls in Florida, the Carolinas and New England. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8797726 Checking the results, it is clear he was wrong. Only six of the remaining twenty storms tracked easterly. Of those, two brushed the eastern coasts and one landfall (Wilma) in Florida.
HURRICANES AND STORMS - 2006 - (updated) Preliminary Report
LOCATION SELECTION - A typical long range forecast covers the weather for a designated state or region. The information for Florida covers the southeast in general. Louisiana forecasts extend from the Florida Gulf coast to Texas. The Carolina forecasts include much of the USA east coast. New England forecasts are located in the Local Summer Forecast.
June is considered a slow month for tropical storms to develop. In the 2006 season, look for a tropical system to develop in early June in the Texas Gulf region and off the coast of Mexico. The June 11th full Moon shines its light on the Gulf Coast again - intense rainfall that is the precursor for the rest of the season. The winds pipe up in the Atlantic with the chance of developing into a tropical disturbance. Well offshore is a tropical event for Mexico.
June 18th finds heavy rain in the area of Puerto Rico. Low pressure develops in the Caribbean and moves north. For the June 25th new Moon, tropical activity is just east of the Leeward Islands plus another stormy event for the coast of Mexico.
Additional updates may be added to this report as time allows.
|Florida - Heavy rains
Louisiana - Strong winds early, heavy rain later.
Carolinas - Breezy to windy, thunderstorms.
Other - A moisture laden system develops north of Puerto Rico and a low pressure event is possible in the middle of the Atlantic
|Florida - Breezy thunderstorms; seasonal humidity
Louisiana -.Breezy, high humidity.
Carolinas - Rain; cloudy
Other - A weather event off the coast of Senegal, Africa near the Canary Islands. Convection is possible.
|Florida - Rain, thunderstorms
Louisiana - Stormy weather. Heavy rain.
Carolinas - High pressure
Other - Clouds and thunderstorms off the coast of Senegal, near the Canary Islands.
|July 25-August 2
|Florida - Wet and windy
Louisiana - .Heavy rain
Carolinas - Heavy rain and windy to gale force winds
Other - quiet.
|August 2 - 8
|Florida - Unstable atmosphere leads to thunderstorms and squallish weather.
Louisiana - Thunderstorms
Carolinas - A week of variety. T-storms, windy, warm, rain, humidity, sunny.
Other - Disturbed weather in the mid-Atlantic. Tropical storm flare-up.
|August 9 - 15
|Florida - Searing heat and humidity - tropical downpours, T-storms. Hurricane weather.
Louisiana - Sunny, warm to very hot and humid.
Carolinas - Hot - turbulent. Violent atmosphere, downpours.
Other - Very hot temperatures in the middle Atlantic.
|August 16 - 22
|Florida - Seasonable, typical summer weather.
Louisiana - Seasonable, hot. Cooling down with T-storm.
Carolinas - Hot, humid. Cooling down T-storm.
Other - A very strong tropical depression forms in the mid-Atlantic.
Baha, CA/MX will host a strong hurricane this period.
|August 23 - 30
|Florida - Very hot and humid.
Louisiana - Warm to hot, pleasant with some humidity.
Carolinas - Hot and humid with strong winds.
Other - Very powerful tropical system develops and becomes a category hurricane near or at the Canary Islands. Heavy rain to flooding on the west coast of Mexico. Southern California has extremely difficult weather, flooding rains.
|August 31 - September 6
|Florida - Hurricane of great strength threatens Florida and the Gulf Coast.
Louisiana - Torrential rain and flooding
Carolinas - Windy; heavy rain.
Other - Honduras and parts of Central America may be in the storm's path.
Generally the steering currents will move the hurricane north.
|September 7 - 13
|Florida - Strong gusty winds.
Louisiana - A tropical storm develops with very destructive winds.
Carolinas - Mostly hot and dry
Other - A strong, very wet depression develops in the eastern Atlantic on the west side of the Canary Islands. Record setting rains along coastal Mexico and storm off California Coast.
|September 14 - 21
|Florida - Take cover for another big blow. A high category hurricane strikes Florida. Oppressive heat.
Louisiana - Heavy rain; flash flooding; strong squalls. . Very high humidity.
Carolinas - Mixed weather events. Hot, then cooler with rain.
Other - Off the coast of Africa there will be convection with a tropical low. It has the potential to be a large storm.
|September 22 - 29
New Moon (Eclipse)
|Florida - Cloudy and cooler. Temps rise and the winds pick up.
Louisiana - Hurricane on central Gulf Coast
Carolinas - Hot and cold fronts bring localized thunder storms
Other - Tropical storm in the mid-Atlantic
|September 30 - October 5
|Florida - Heavy rain.
Louisiana - Severe storm threat.
Carolinas -Heavy rain
Other - Stalled (possibly) tropical storm in mid-Atlantic
|October 6 - 12
|Florida - Cooler, breezy. Tropical storm threat south of Florida
Louisiana - Cool, breezy, clouds.
Carolinas - Cool, breezy, showers
Other - Two disturbed areas. Off the coast of Africa and another near South America
|October 13 - 21
|Florida - Unstable atmosphere. Warm and humid
Louisiana - Hurricane
Carolinas - Sunny, breezy, showers later
Other - A low pressure system develops off to the east of the states.
|October 22 - 29
|Florida - Tropical storm offshore - should be no threat to Florida. Warm and humid
Louisiana - More wet weather for this beleaguered state
Carolinas - Warm to hot temps.
Other - Tropical system east of the Leeward Islands
Preliminary forecast February, 2006
Updated May 15, 2006 Carolyn Egan © all rights reserved.