AFTERTHOUGHTS OF THE 2007 SEASON
Thank you to all who purchased the Florida Hurricane Report. The results are posted after each weekly period analysis. The accuracy of the report that was prepared nine months ago is very high for a season that was forecasted to have more than mediocre activity. Carolyn Egan, forecaster

INTRODUCTION
The approach of the hurricane season brings apprehension to those who are
the most exposed to the wrath of violent storms along our coasts. When will we know a storm is approaching and if it will veer to your area? The information from the weather services varies. In routine reporting early on in the season, the National Weather Service (NWS) announces their list of probable numbers of storms and almost never fails to change that list mid-season. This long range, full season forecast report remains as written throughout the whole season with a very good rate of accuracy plus it is prepared months prior to the actual season. The NWS list is based on statistical scientific information with little historical value and it is devoid of natural cycles. The methods used to develop this report date back to hundreds of years ago and have been tested regularly since then.

METHOD OF REPORTING
The methods and models that are used for long range weather forecasting are not considered ultra scientific yet they have bee in use for hundreds of years. There are many models or tools to consider, to observe, and to connect or synthesize the data. All that is needed is a date, a location and the current climate to forecast in advance of the actual weather. The NWS radar can track tropical weather after is has formed. It is well known that meteorologists who discuss global warming cannot develop a long range weather forecast for more than several days in advance of the weather and many times, one that is not always accurate. Each system has its merits; using the two systems together presents the best possible storm information.

The NWS has thousands of scientists and millions of taxpayer dollars invested in computers, supercomputers and various other methods of recording all the components of weather. In the case of the astrometeorologist, the time and devotion to the study of weather is priceless and the working capital and equipment is rather minimal -one person, one computer, and in this author's case, 15 years of testing the system and presenting proof of its viability.

When the weather is visible, the NWS analyzing and tracking abilities are good, but their reliance on statistical information is quite overstated. In this original and unique report, hunting the Florida hurricanes is featured.

2007 - NOT A MEDIOCRE SEASON

Compared to the previous two seasons, the 2007 hurricane season will not be extreme, but it will not be mediocre. Plotting and identifying the storms for the season and assessing the information from various models results in this original and one of a kind forecast. A storm can be very much localized or it can cover an entire region just as the Perfect Storm covered about a 2,000 square mile surface.

In the weekly summaries, each of the 7 to 8 days periods of time includes information regarding the development of storms for Florida or, if obvious, weather events of interest along the coasts or around the various islands in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical weather and other weather events affecting Florida during hurricane season 2007 are discussed in this report. The wind factor comes from one model and is broken down into specific periods of time as noted in the table, fig. 1.

Not all storms will be listed nor tracked as they move along the waters. There is a track record of accuracy for the long range hurricane forecasts which some may call predictions. The records for previous seasons are on the menu.

Previous long range hurricane reports have included a broader view of three regions along the USA coastline. Florida, the central Gulf Coast and the Mid-Atlantic States were considered. The focus of this 2007 report is on the state of Florida and nearby waters, but other regions will recorded if they are obviously viewed on the Florida models.

PREVIOUS HURRICANE REPORTS
An extreme number of storms were recorded in 2005. Katrina developed in the Bahamas/Miami area, made landfall in Florida then tracked across the Gulf to strike the Gulf States. New Orleans suffered the after effects of the storm with severe flooding when the levees gave way.

Hurricane Rita developed over south Florida and tracked to Louisiana and the last of the most powerful storms, Wilma, developed and struck in October. Each of these storms was described accurately, along with others, in a season that I christened 'riddled with storms'.

2006 was a season with great expectations after the extraordinary 2005 storm totals. It was a disappointment to most meteorologists and, even though my storm descriptions were modest, my report was inaccurate with 2 forecasted hurricanes.
Bad weather, but not actual hurricanes, did result. However, of the 9 named storms (by the NWS), the forecasts in this report were accurate over the course of the season.

On the day that Hurricane Katrina was spawned, my hurricane report accurately described the event. The same is true for Rita and Wilma. In 2006, Hurricane Ernesto lingered and threatened for many days before making landfall in Florida.
He then proceeded to harass the Mid-Atlantic States. His activity was aptly described in the August 31st 2006 SuperMoon period.

THE WIND
To begin, the wind is one component of a hurricane. A model used for a future forecast determines of the strength of the wind over the course of the season. Dates of each model period vary. A high velocity wind indication combined with a weekly storm forecast can identify the development of a hurricane.

THE HOMELAND - FLORIDA
The state of Florida is a natural breeding ground for tropical weather and storms. The warm to hot climate and sultry humidity are the ingredients for hurricane soup, a dish served often for this state. During the year that Hurricane Andrew devastated southern Florida, the forecasting models indicated a severe and transforming change to the environment. A tremendous rebuilding incurring great debt would take place due to tempestuous winds.

In 2007, the forecasting models depict environmental damage and very strong changes to the health and hospital conditions in the state. One repeating cycle indicates hurricane damage. In 1844, a hurricane moved into Florida south of St. Augustine, then traveled to the Gulf side, turned and re entered Florida in early September. In *October, 1844, another hurricane slammed into Cuba causing 101 deaths. The storm turned north but stayed offshore although sinking a schooner, the Vigilant, off Key West.

WEEKLY SUMMARIES - Hunting the Hurricanes

Each weekly summary, 7-8 days long, includes the observable weather for much of Florida. Hunting the hurricanes that will develop in nearby waters is the main focus. Not all weather events are detailed. Moisture levels can be found in this model and it is combined with the wind velocity. A high percentage of accuracy of up to 90% has been achieved for the written description of the weather events.

Friday, June 8-13, 2007 **Perigee June 12

A windy rainstorm will be in the region when a cold front moves down. Tornado warnings may be issued. Extreme heat will be felt at the end of this period into the next; tropical activity takes place south of Florida. Windy conditions for the Haitian island up through the Bahamas.

RESULTS:
WeatherUnderground.com reports higher than average temperatures and a windy rainstorm over southern Florida on the 13th. Tropical wave activity was south of Florida near Jamaica.

Thursday, June 14-21, 2007

Hot weather for most of this week ahead. The usual round of thunderstorms with the exception of one fierce cold front intensifying a dangerous squall. Offshore activity could produce flooding rain via a tropical depression near the regions of Cuba-Haiti.

RESULTS:
Weather Underground.com reports June 14 thunderstorm wind gust 66 mph.
Heavy rain in Cuba, South Florida, June 16, 2007.

Friday, June 22-29, 2007

Extreme is the keyword for much of this period. Very hot temperatures are expected and that will heat the waters rapidly. The natural progression of the heat sets in motion one of the breeding ingredients for future storms. The T-storms are very active when cooler air arrives. It should remain cooler with clouds for the latter half of the week. Puerto Rico will be inundated with heavy a downpour.

RESULTS:
Jun 24, 2007 The Weather Channel reports record heat and June 26, the Weather Channel reports a strong flare-up in the Florida Bahamas area. Puerto Rico - showers.
Jun 29, 2007 The Weather Channel reports continued heavy showers causing flooding in Florida and the Bahamas.

Saturday, June 30-July 6, 2007

A nasty, very wet storm is brewing near the 4th of July and it is tropical in nature. The wind indications are not very strong giving hesitation to forecast a full blown hurricane. However, Cuba and the Bahamas are in the path of the very wet system.

RESULTS:
Jul 2, 2007 Weather Channel reports tropical moisture persists along the Gulf coast as well as Florida and the Bahamas.
Jul 4, 2007 Accuweather's archives report that nearly 2 inches of rain fell in southern Florida, confirming this periods forecast.

Saturday, July 7-13, 2007 **Perigee July 9

Cloudy weather remains and this period the wind is stirred up. There will be a bit of Sun this period and severe thunderstorm activity near the 13th. Tropical disturbance is observed well offshore in the southern Bahamas where the Turks and Caicos Islands are vulnerable to heavy rain.

RESULTS:
South Florida received an inch of rain on the 12th.

Saturday, July 14-21, 2007

Hot and humid - seasonable fair weather with the usual scattered showers except for severe weather happening the 16-17th as the models converge to give fair warning here.

RESULTS:
A quiet week in the tropics (Atlantic).
In the Miami area there was hot and humid weather with temps reaching almost 100 degrees. A Florida resident wrote: On Tuesday the 17th the storm was so bad that lightning hit the building next to mine and called out 3 fire trucks and a police car to check. I have heard reports in some areas near here of 7" of rain in one storm, and the usual flooding.

Sunday, July 22-28, 2007

A mixed week of weather. Hot and humid - seasonable fair weather with the usual scattered showers. The temps should vary from very warm to cooler over the course of the week; expect cloudy days and dry days as well. The Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will see lots of clouds and heavy rains.

RESULTS:
Florida was mostly dry for the period. Cuba received just over an inch of rain during the period - no heavy rains. There was heavy rain at times in Puerto Rico according to the weather history from Weather Underground. com, There were no tropical storms or hurricanes - the long range report is accurate.

Sunday, July 29-Aug 4, 2007 **Perigee August 3

A variety of weather fronts are on either side of Florida. An aggressive stormy
system to the west and a very wet system pushes along on the east coast after dumping quite a bit of rain, perhaps tropical activity over Cuba. Florida itself should be breezy and perhaps a bit cooler than the normal 90 degree temps, with clouds overhead.

RESULTS:
Jul 27, 2007 the Weather Channel reports the east coast rains and heavy rains along the Gulf coast.
Jul 31, 2007 reports TD possible aimed at windward islands, and a possible surface low off Florida could become a TD.
Aug 4, 2007 From Weather Underground site. Florida had a mean temp in the 80s for the period, confirming the forecast. The system at St. Croix moved west, past Cuba and over to Central America. It is hitting land today.
Dr. Gray changes his original hurricane forecast totals. This report does not change.

Sunday, August 5-11, 2007

The severe weather is someplace else this week! Floridians may enjoy their typical summer weather. Hot, humid, showers. A stronger T-storm Aug 10-11.

RESULTS:
Aug 5-11, 2007 Florida weather is very hot and the tropics are quiet. Weatherunderground.com history for August (Miami, FL) shows low 90s F for daytime temps. Rainfall about ¼ inch daily until the 10-11th with rainfall higher and a temperature change indicated a stronger Tstorm. The report is accurate.

Sunday, August 12-19, 2007

A week of mixed weather events. A drenching rain plus very sticky conditions makes it uncomfortable. The ingredients are assembled in the Atlantic to produce one or more tropical storms. Bermuda is in the spotlight as well as the south Atlantic islands. One of the tropical depressions will track to Florida this period during the 15-19th.

RESULTS:
Aug 13, 2007 The Weather Channel is reporting a strong wave off the coast of Africa and heavy rain in Florida.
Aug 14, 2007 Hurricane hunter aircraft will be exploring a possible tropical depression over Cuba
Aug 15, 2007 Weather Channel reports 4 inches of flooding rain in Florida.
Aug 16, 2007 The system off the African Coast became TStorm Dean and is headed for the Atlantic Islands. A system over Cuba has steered into the Gulf and may become a TStorm (Erin) later today. Erin tracks over Central Texas, moving west.
8/16/07 HURRICANE DEAN -WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. CROIX
8/18/07 Hurricane Dean is now a cat 4 with possibility of becoming a cat 5 as the storm approaches Jamaica.
The forecast is accurate..

Monday, August 20-27, 2007 Lunar Eclipse 4 deg. Pisces

Very hot temps. Already developed tropical storms will move into the Florida region. New storms may also develop in this period as there is plenty of wind and rain. A dangerous time for the eastern third of the USA - the gulf coast and the east coasts included. High pressure over Bermuda keeps the heat grinder pumping away.

RESULTS:
Aug 22, 2007 A tropical wave brings Tstorms to the Florida Peninsula.
Aug 27, 2007 The Weather Channel reports very hot temps in Florida, mostly quiet for tropical storm development.

Tuesday, August 28-September 2, 2007 **Perigee August 31

A dire setup of weather energies brings a hurricane to Florida. The Gulf Coast is in danger of flooding rains. Two weather events are seen as the development of a hurricane in one area that tracks to the other area along the Gulf Coast. Intensifying turbulence high in the atmosphere spawns a storm in the Atlantic. Read more below about perigee periods.

RESULTS:
Aug 30, 2007 A low pressure system of the east to south east coast developed and drifted for days causing flooding in Georgia and Florida by Sept. 2

Comment - The dire setup of weather energies did bring a category 5 hurricane - but well south of Florida and the Gulf coast. The east coast storm in the Atlantic persists into this next quarter Moon period. The accuracy of the report is mixed.

Monday, September 3-10, 2007

Hot and humid; uncomfortable air leads to more active T-storms otherwise quiet tropical activity for the area.

RESULTS:
Sep 8, 2007 A tropical storm that has been drifting in the Atlantic is now labeled subtropical which means the storm has some tropical features, a hybrid.
Florida remains free of tropical activity this period. The forecast is accurate.

PEAK HURRICANE SEASON

Tuesday, September 11-18, 2007 Solar Eclipse 18 degrees Virgo

The winds are piping up this period and the temperature cools. Clouds are gathering and building for another tropical event. Florida will take on the wind but the focus this period and next is the Texas coast.

RESULTS:
Sep 12, 2007 WC reports the system in the Gulf off the Texas coast will probably become a tropical depression later today. Flooding rain.
Sep 13, 2007 Sudden hurricane hits Texas Humberto surprised forecasters early today by quickly strengthening into a hurricane before hitting southeast Texas. The storm made landfall near High Island with 85 mph winds.
Sep 15, 2007 Weather Channel reports funnel clouds off the Florida coast for the past 3 days and on Sept. 16, a tornado in Florida. The forecast is 100% accurate. Surprise (to the regular meteorologists was Hurricane Humberto - not to astromets however. Florida took the wind and lower temps.

Wednesday, September 19-25, 2007 ***SuperMoon September 26

An abundance of dreadful weather spread out over the Atlantic, Florida, the Gulf Coast and Mexico! The mixed bag of elements in the tropics kick up in the southern Atlantic and a developing storm could then track to Florida. Texas and Mexico are in the spotlight as well. A moisture laden system tracks over Mexico. The models display an unusual combination to bring about a very electric state to the atmosphere. Many times cold air is associated with the model as well as public health issues. The condition may be more exact over the Central Americas.

RESULTS:
Sep 19, 2007 Copied from Atlantic Tropical Discussion report: WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
Sep 21, 2007 Weather Channel reports the system is moving west across Florida. The oil producing rigs in the Gulf have been evacuated as the system could intensify into a Tropical Storm.
Sep 22, 2007 Tropical Storm 10 made landfall in the Gulf with drenching rain from Florida to Louisiana. Mexico has tropical systems Ivo and today a system that will bring heavy rain to Cancun.
Sep 23, 2007 11pm Weather Channel reports 4 systems in the Atlantic/Caribb. Tropical Storm Jerry, a wave off Africa, a system just east of the Antilles and the surge of tropical moisture headed to the Gulf.
Sep 25, 2007 7am Weather Channel tracks 4 systems as the waters are very active. TS #11 is named Karen.
The forecast is 100% accurate.

Wednesday September 26-October 2, 2007 **Perigee September 28

There are no obvious storms in the Florida region but tropical rain drenches part of the state but there will be several very pleasant and fair days. In the Atlantic a tropical storm develops in the area east of Puerto Rico.

RESULTS:
Sep 26, 2007 Tropical rain is 1" in Florida today.
Sep 28, 2007 Florida rains continue.
Oct 2, 2007 Heavy rains in Florida cause flooding. Circulation develops north of Puerto Rico. The forecast is accurate.

Wednesday, October 3-10, 2007

Disturbed weather, unstable atmosphere, marching fronts will produce storms in several places this period. Florida may not experience the brunt of these developing storms but the gulf coast will be hot with a high pressure mass pumping in the gulf air. The mid Atlantic states are under the gun. Looking at all the models the picture that is coming together is one of a storm that affects the southern USA and sweeps up through the Mid-Atlantic States and into New England with drenching rains.

RESULTS:
Oct 4, 2007 Drenching rains in the southeast and the gulf.
Oct 10, 2007 Accuweather reports above average temperatures in Florida for this period.
Weather Channel reported the variety of storms that were potential for tropical storm development for this period. A storm system produced copious rain amounts in the mid-Atlantic and New England. The forecast is 100% accurate.

Thursday, October 11-18, 2007

Tropical rain persists as the season begins to wind down. Squallish weather with strong breezes for Florida. It may be late enough in the season where the benchmarks for hurricane soup are not organized enough. Many fair and fine fall days this period.

RESULTS:
Oct. 13, 2007 Weatherunderground reports - Fair.
Oct. 16, 2007 Weather Channel reports no tropical depressions; there is plenty of tropical moisture in Florida, the islands and Gulf of Mexico. Accuweather details 4 days with no rain in Miami and the remaining days a total of about 1 ½ inches.
The forecast is 100% accurate.

Friday, October 19-25, 2007 Perigee SuperMoon Oct. 26

High pressure, cooler temps and fair weather is good news for this period.
Windy and wet storms along the Gulf Coast in Texas and in Louisiana could develop into a low pressure event.

RESULTS:
Oct 21, 2007 Tropical moisture works its way along the Gulf Coast bringing rain to the very dry states in the southeast.
The accuracy is mixed.

Friday, October 26-31, 2007 Perigee SuperMoon Oct. 26

Brisk winds are in the region. A mixed week of weather ahead. Clear and lovely days intermittent with seasonal thunderstorms should please many.

RESULTS:
Oct. 28, 2007 Weather Channel reports brisk winds and rip tides from Cape Hatteras down to the east coast of Florida and across to the west coast of Florida.
Oct. 30, 2007 Tropical Storm Noel has developed over Hispaniola and is moving towards the Bahamas. Florida is still experiencing brisk winds.
Oct. 31, 2007 Local news charts Tropical Storm Noel to leave the Cuba area and move out to sea. Florida had winds from two fronts colliding and causing much beach erosion.
The forecast is accurate.

NOVEMBER

The hurricane season ends November 30th. In Florida, there may be one tropical disturbance November 8 - 16. Overall, November will have higher than normal temperatures and a great deal of fair and pleasant weather.

PERIGEE AND SYZYGY

A syzygy is a situation where three celestial bodies are positioned along a straight line. The term is also applied to each instance of New Moon or Full Moon when Sun and Moon are in conjunction or opposition, even though they are not precisely on one line with the Earth.

***SuperMoon is a term coined by Richard Nolle, Astrologer. He defines the SuperMoon as a perigee-syzygy; namely a new or full moon which occurs at or near (within 90% of) perigee. Check his website for the complete list of SuperMoon dates.
http://www.astropro.com/features/tables/cen20ce/suprmoon.html

References
Hurricane pictures - clipart courtesy of Microsoft Word
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1840-1849_Atlantic_hurricane_seasons#1845_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Carolyn Egan
February, 2007 © All rights reserved
Results posted November 24, 2007